Virgin Galactic easily accomplished its sixth human spaceflight in six months on Thursday, persevering with a formidable cadence of missions with its VSS Unity spacecraft. This efficiency has made the corporate the clear chief in suborbital house tourism.

A key query is the place this leaves the opposite firm with a launch system able to carrying non-public astronauts above the ambiance: Blue Origin. That firm’s New Shepard rocket and spacecraft have been grounded since an engine failure practically 14 months in the past. Throughout that uncrewed flight, the rocket broke aside, however the capsule safely parachuted to the West Texas desert.

Blue Origin completed its accident evaluation this spring and carried out a repair to the difficulty, together with design modifications to the BE-3 engine combustion chamber. In Could, the corporate mentioned it deliberate to return to flight “quickly.” Then, in September, the Federal Aviation Administration closed its mishap investigation. So the place is New Shepard?

The corporate initially focused an uncrewed return-to-flight mission in early October, two sources informed Ars. This flight was to hold the scientific experiments on board the ill-fated New Shepard-23 to offer them a second alternative to attempt to attain house and bear microgravity situations. Assuming all went effectively, a crewed mission was to comply with in February 2024.

Nevertheless, October has come and gone. Requested when New Shepard will launch, a Blue Origin spokesperson informed Ars, “We’re making ready for flight and plan to return later this 12 months.”

That’s in step with what some members of the Blue Origin crew at the moment are working towards. The newest delay, in accordance with a supply on the firm, was attributable to a difficulty with certifying an engine half supposed for flight.

It’s too robust to characterize the New Shepard rocket and spacecraft as a conceit program for Blue Origin and its founder, Jeff Bezos. In any case, the corporate has discovered some beneficial classes about vertical touchdown and rocket reuse that it’ll apply to the a lot bigger New Glenn rocket. Nevertheless, after New Shepard gave Bezos his much-desired trip to house in 2021, it is price considering the aim of this system going ahead.

Does New Shepard have a future?

Of Blue Origin’s roughly 11,000 workers, about 400 individuals spend half or all of their time engaged on New Shepard. That could be a small fraction of the corporate’s total workforce, however factoring in salaries, advantages, and programmatic bills, an inexpensive estimate is that New Shepard prices Blue Origin about $100 million a 12 months to keep up and function.

Previous to the accident, this system averaged a flight roughly each eight to 10 weeks. Even doubling that cadence, it is rather unlikely that New Shepard would come near being revenue-neutral. As one individual conversant in the corporate’s funds informed Ars, “It is positively a cash loser. All the time has been.” One other individual informed Ars that New Shepard is “hemorrhaging” cash.

New Shepard is only one of many traces of enterprise being pursued by Blue Origin. There may be competitors throughout the firm for assets to construct engines, huge rockets, lunar landers, and even an area station. At Virgin Galactic, there may be solely suborbital house tourism. In different phrases, Blue Origin might finish New Shepard and nonetheless be a significant house firm. At Virgin, it is the entire enchilada.

In December, a brand new chief government will take the reins at Blue Origin, an Amazon veteran named Dave Limp, who has Bezos’ belief. When he was employed, Bezos gave Limp a transparent mandate: transfer sooner. Particularly, Bezos needs Blue Origin to ship on the massive New Glenn rocket and lunar lander for the Artemis Program. One technique to reduce prices and transfer sooner could be to take the proficient and skilled engineers on New Shepard and allocate them to the rocket and lander packages.

It is not possible to know what’s in Bezos’ thoughts, in fact. Finally, it is going to be his choice about whether or not New Shepard continues to fly. This system, which is managed in Washington state and flown out of West Texas, will final so long as he cares to subsidize it. However it’s maybe notable that Bezos simply introduced he’s shifting from Washington to Miami. Florida has no capital beneficial properties taxes (which is necessary if you’re promoting Amazon inventory to fund Blue Origin on the common), his mother and father are there, and his associate Lauren Sanchez loves the seashore.

Miami can also be nearer to Cape Canaveral, the place the motion is for Blue Origin’s rocket and lunar lander actions. “Blue Origin’s operations are more and more shifting to Cape Canaveral,” Bezos wrote on Instagram.

And it’s fairly removed from West Texas.